| Autor: Anna Gdakowicz | 39 |
Strony: 39-54
pełen tekst
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC CYCLE ON DWELLINGS’ MARKET IN SZCZECIN IN 1997–2006
Summary
Dwellings’ market, as well as all economy, undergoes fluctuations. The knowledge of cycles in dwellings’ market is of a huge a significant influence on property developers, investors and municipal and state government. The period of economic growth infl uences the time of starting an investment, is a signal to buy or sell a dwelling, could also be an impulse for development of all economy. The boom on real estate market may lead to revival (or maintenance) of economic growth, but the collapse – may influence in a negative way on all economy. Therefore, the authorities should take advantage of the potential which is in dwellings, for the maintenance of prosperity period in all economy. All the more so because the development of dwellings’ market depends much on the State policy. A dwelling has a double function in economy. It is a good that satisfi es people’s needs (the basic ones, but also the higher needs connected with self-actualisation of an individual). On the other hand, it is an object of investments. The ‘equipment’ of people with dwellings is a measure of their welfare. Taking into account the formal-statistical conditions which the variables infl uencing the economic cycle should meet, two economic variables were chosen: number of completed dwellings and mean employment in construction industry. The diagnostic usefulness of the indicator was examined in relation to the indicator calculated for the region’s economy. The dwellings’ market cycle has developed with a two-year delay in comparison with the economic cycle of the region. The analysis of turning points of both business cycles reveals slower reaction of dwellings’ market on positive stimuli from economy. This, without doubt, is a result of length of investment process (on the real estate market it lasts at least three years), but also of market participants’ expectations of positive stimuli form the State (introducing interest allowance or VAT on construction materials refund).
pełen tekstANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC CYCLE ON DWELLINGS’ MARKET IN SZCZECIN IN 1997–2006
Summary
Dwellings’ market, as well as all economy, undergoes fluctuations. The knowledge of cycles in dwellings’ market is of a huge a significant influence on property developers, investors and municipal and state government. The period of economic growth infl uences the time of starting an investment, is a signal to buy or sell a dwelling, could also be an impulse for development of all economy. The boom on real estate market may lead to revival (or maintenance) of economic growth, but the collapse – may influence in a negative way on all economy. Therefore, the authorities should take advantage of the potential which is in dwellings, for the maintenance of prosperity period in all economy. All the more so because the development of dwellings’ market depends much on the State policy. A dwelling has a double function in economy. It is a good that satisfi es people’s needs (the basic ones, but also the higher needs connected with self-actualisation of an individual). On the other hand, it is an object of investments. The ‘equipment’ of people with dwellings is a measure of their welfare. Taking into account the formal-statistical conditions which the variables infl uencing the economic cycle should meet, two economic variables were chosen: number of completed dwellings and mean employment in construction industry. The diagnostic usefulness of the indicator was examined in relation to the indicator calculated for the region’s economy. The dwellings’ market cycle has developed with a two-year delay in comparison with the economic cycle of the region. The analysis of turning points of both business cycles reveals slower reaction of dwellings’ market on positive stimuli from economy. This, without doubt, is a result of length of investment process (on the real estate market it lasts at least three years), but also of market participants’ expectations of positive stimuli form the State (introducing interest allowance or VAT on construction materials refund).